Weather

We made a decision that by the end of half term we will of completed all of our outdoor shots. Last week i was look through the weather forecast and the best day that i found to film was Wednesday 20th October because although it was going to be cold the sun would be shining. Here is an overview of this months weather, it is telling us that it is going to be very chilly but should be dry with is great. Unfortunately due to filming yesterday i had no time to get the wednesday weather forecast on the blog that showed this sunny weather but by our shots you will be able to see that the weather was just as planned.

• Map Presenter
• Monthly Outlook
• UK Summary

Published at 10:00, 18 October

(Next update at 10:00, 25 October)

Written by Rob McElwee

Summary

Cold start with no Indian Summer in sight

At first we draw in some Arctic air and snow showers in Scotland. Gradually the wind backs around through westnorthwesterly to southwesterly over the following three weeks.

None of that allows any significant warmth but should bring a lot of sunshine.

Wind and rain are normally the watchwords of autumn but it looks like the northwest of the UK will be the focus of most of the rain. We'll none of us escape the breeze and at least some showers.

Monday 18 October 2010 to Sunday 24 October 2010

Arctic chill. Briefly.

As pressure rises in the Atlantic and falls in Scandinavia, we in the UK are between the two: We suffer the consequence of a northerly wind which brings air from beyond the Arctic Circle.

This cold air will flood the whole of the UK during Tuesday and Wednesday leaving white-topped Scottish hills and another widespread inland frost on Tuesday night.

Daytime temperatures will drop to single figures even before you think about windchill. Hard frosts at night will be avoided as the wind will be generally brisk.

By the end of the week, the wind will back to a northwesterly, cutting off any further temperature drop and bringing rain into Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Monday 25 October 2010 to Sunday 31 October 2010

Not as cold

Confidence in the forecast is medium to low but a consistent signal is higher than average rainfall in Northern Ireland. This suggests a westnorthwesterly wind, bearing rain showers. The signal for rain in southwest Britain is lower than average, supporting this idea.

Other consequences of that weather set-up are quite a lot of sunshine in most areas and temperatures rising from last week's levels.

Sunday 31 October 2010 to Saturday 13 November 2010

Wet and windy Halloween?

The wind completes its journey back to a southwesterly. The implication of that is that a low pressure centre exists to the west of the UK.

Temperatures ought not to surprise, rain should be concentrated in the west and southwest and sunshine should show most in the east and in Scotland.

Next week

It's November. Expect cold, quiet, grey and damp conditions.

Monthly forecasting

The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.